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Best predictor and intercept-only model
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Best predictor and intercept-only model
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RMarkdown sample
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commonErrors
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commonErrors (solution)
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Labor Unions in Sweden
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Labor Unions in Sweden
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Posts
portfolio
publications
Identifying the Diffusion and Suppression of Political Naming in Turkey with a Matched Interrupted Time Series Design
Working paper, 2026
Can a newborn’s name reveal political expression under repression? Using more than 28 million Turkish birth records, I combine interrupted time series with forty matched names to assess the rise and contraction of Deniz naming. Bayesian multilevel models measure how these responses vary across places and whether contraction concentrates where earlier growth was strongest.
Read the paper: open the PDF
Labor Union Solidarity, Occupational Risks, and Demand for Redistribution in Europe
Working paper, 2026
Why do union members support redistribution when their own need for insurance is limited? I develop an account of risk-dependent altruism, extending the argument from the affordability of redistribution to workers’ expected insurance needs. Across twenty-six European countries, the adjusted membership difference in support is largest among workers at the lowest occupational unemployment risk.
Read the paper: open the PDF
Coarsened by Design: Measurement Error Bias from Grouped Variables in Interacted Regressions
Working paper, 2026
Social scientists theorize about continuous quantities such as income but often observe them only through a few ordered brackets, which they replace with category ranks or midpoints. I show that this practice induces a measurement error that can rescale a true interaction effect or fabricate a spurious one, and I develop a regularized interval regression with an empirical Bayes extension that corrects it. Five reanalyses of published studies show what a scoring rule contributes to a substantive comparison. Draft available upon request.
talks
teaching
CS&SS 321 - Data Science and Statistics for Social Sciences I
Undergraduate course, University of Washington, 2024
This post comprises my teaching assistant materials for the quiz sections of an undergraduate introductory course in data science with R/RStudio, instructed by Professor Caitlin Ainsley. See my teaching assistant syllabus for the sections contents and policy.